What Trump Truly Wants from China by Waving the Tariff Baton

And What Will Happen to the US Stock Market in Two Days If No Deal Reached

A Ticking Clock: Tariffs Unmasked, Chaos Looms

The tariff clock ticks toward April 9—Trump’s 54% salvo on China could spike to 104%, a smokescreen for a fierce U.S. gambit. No deal? Brace for hell: markets could crater, the Dow hemorrhaging thousands of points; supply chains could snap; households might bleed $2,000 more yearly (National Retail Federation estimate). China’s rare earth ban (Reuters, April 4, 2025) already chokes U.S. tech—April 10 could be another bloody day.

What the U.S. May Demand

1. A Grand Procurement Pact
   Envision the U.S. pressing China to ink a dazzling deal—perhaps $200 billion to $500 billion over a few years—for American gems like oil tankers aglow, fields of soybeans ripe for harvest, or Boeing jets piercing the clouds. This could echo the 2020 Phase One success, potentially narrowing the $350 billion trade chasm while breathing vigor into America’s heartland.

2. A Harder Yuan
   Whispers suggest the U.S. might covet a 5%-10% rise in the Chinese Yuan (say, from 7.2 to 6.5 against the dollar). A loftier Yuan could nudge Chinese exports toward pricier shores, easing the strain on U.S. factories and possibly curbing China’s trade swagger—a distant echo, some muse, of Japan’s Plaza Accord.

3. Structural Opening of China’s Market
   Beyond the tariff curtain, the U.S. may dream of China flinging wide its guarded gates. Could it envision a fully unshackled financial market, where Wall Street giants roam free? Or a social media stage, where Silicon Valley’s stars—like X or Meta—finally take their bow? Cloud computing, too, beckons—a realm where U.S. titans like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud falter against China’s maze of data localization laws, cybersecurity audits, and mandates for local partnerships (often with 51% Chinese ownership). Backed by Silicon Valley’s luminaries, the U.S. might demand a bold unwinding—perhaps scrapping these rules, allowing unfettered data flows, or granting U.S. firms majority control—to unlock this trillion-dollar frontier. Add to this a trimming of state subsidies and a sharpening of intellectual property protections, and the stage could shift for American ingenuity.

4. A Geopolitical Masterstroke
   Less overt, yet impossible to dismiss, is the notion that the U.S. seeks to dim China’s global shine. Rare earths—vital for semiconductors, electric vehicles, and missiles—could be a linchpin. China, wielding 70% of global supply, has banned exports to the U.S. and restricted others in past spats (e.g., 2010 to Japan). The U.S. might press for guaranteed flows or loosened controls, averting a tech chokehold. By squeezing China’s export heart, Yuan aspirations, and strategic leverage, America could aim to keep its star ascendant, coaxing subtle concessions on the world’s grand chessboard.

No Deal by April 9? A Market Plunge Awaits